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Peace River Environmental Society |
Nuclear Information (economics) |
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October 28, 2008 - 10
Earth Policy Institute
The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2008/Update78.htm Lester R. Brown Over the last few years the nuclear industry has used concerns about climate change to argue for a nuclear revival. Although industry representatives may have convinced some political leaders that this is a good idea, there is little evidence of private capital investing in nuclear plants in competitive electricity markets. The reason is simple: nuclear power is uneconomical. To get a sense of the costs of nuclear waste disposal, we need not look beyond the United States, which leads the world with 101,000 megawatts of nuclear-generating capacity (compared with 63,000 megawatts in second-ranked France). The United States proposes to store the radioactive waste from its 104 nuclear power reactors in the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, roughly 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada. The cost of this repository, originally estimated at $58 billion in 2001, climbed to $96 billion by 2008. This comes to a staggering $923 million per reactor—almost $1 billion each—assuming no further repository cost increases. The following information is from The Rocky Mountain Institute website. The Case Against Nuclear http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid504.php Nuclear power, we’re told, is experiencing a dramatic worldwide
revival and vibrant growth, because it’s competitive, necessary,
reliable, secure, and vital for energy security and climate protection. ‘The Nuclear Illusion’ -- a study by RMI Cofounder and Chief Scientist Amory Lovins and Imran Sheikh. Missing the Market Meltdown - Lovins' Newsweek article on nuclear power's lack of bankability. Media coverage of 'The Nuclear Illusion':Time: Is Nuclear Power Viable? The Star Phoenix: Nuclear industry spins new mythology Reuters: Nuclear renaissance or nuclear illusion? Bloomberg: Lovins: Nuclear Power Can't Solve Global Warming Rocky Mountain News: Nuke interest resurges in state Grist: Rebuklear - The latest sorties in the war over nuclear power Matter Network: Lovins Weighs in on Nuclear Power U.S. and World Report: Energy "Manhattan Project"?
The Nuclear Illusion 27 May 2008, DRAFT subject to further peer review/editingAMORY B. LOVINS AND IMRAN SHEIKH A widely heralded view holds that nuclear power is experiencing a dramatic worldwide revival and vibrant growth, because it’s competitive, necessary, reliable, secure, and vital for fuel security and climate protection. That’s all false. In fact, nuclear power is continuing its decades-long collapse in the global marketplace because it’s grossly uncompetitive, unneeded, and obsolete—so hopelessly uneconomic that one needn’t debate whether it’s clean and safe; it weakens electric reliability and national security; and it worsens climate change compared with devoting the same money and time to more effective options.Yet the more decisively nuclear power is humbled by swifter and cheaper rivals, the more zealously its advocates claim it has no serious competitors. The web of old fictions 1 ingeniously spun by a coordinated and intensive global campaign is spread by a credulous press and boosted by the nuclear enthusiasts who, probably for the first time ever, now happen to lead nearly all major governments at once. Many people have been misled, including four well-known individuals with long environmental histories2—amplified by the industry’s echo box into a sham but widely believed claim of broad green endorsement—and some key legislators. As a result, the U.S. Congress in late 2007 voted $18.5 billion, and the industry will soon be back for another $30+ billion, in new loan guarantees for up to 80% of the cost of new U.S. nuclear units. And the long-pronuclear British government, abruptly reversing its well-reasoned 2002 policy, has decided to replace its old nuclear plants with new ones, although, it claims, without public subsidy3—a feat no country has yet achieved. Thus policy diverges ever farther from market realities.To mind the gap between claim and fact, let’s review each step in the nuclear catechism. We’ll explore the past and future costs of new nuclear plants, what alternatives they must beat, A quick look at the track record At the end of 2007, 4 the world had 439 operating nuclear stations totaling 372 GW (billion watts) of net generating capacity with an average age of 23 years—a year older than the 117 reactors already shut down. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says 31 nuclear units were under construction in 13 countries—eight more than at the end of 2004, but ~20 fewer than in the late 1990s. All but five were in Asia or Eastern Europe; yet the Asian Development Bank has never financed one, and reaffirmed this policy in 2000, nor has the World Bank, with a minor 1959 exception. Much of the reported activity is not new: of the 31 units listed as under construction, 12 have been so for at least 20 years, some were started in the 1970s, and two longmoribund projects have been re-listed.5Turning ambitions into actual investments, firm orders, and operating plants faces fundamental obstacles that are now first and foremost economic, since the political obstacles related to safety, waste, proliferation, etc., can be and in many countries have been bypassed by fiat. The economic evidence below confirms that new nuclear power plants 6 are unfinanceable in the private capital market because of their excessive costs and financial risks and the high uncertainty of both.7 During the nuclear revival now allegedly underway, no new nuclear project on earth has been financed by private risk capital,8 chosen by an open decision process, nor bid into the world’s innumerable power markets and auctions.9 No old nuclear plant has been resold at a value consistent with a market case for building a new one. And two strong global trends— greater transparency in governmental and energy decision-making, and wider use of competitive power markets—are further dimming nuclear prospects.The Economist observed in 200110 that “Nuclear power, once claimed to be too cheap to meter, is now too costly to matter”—cheap to run but very expensive to build. Since then, it has become severalfold costlier still to build—and in a few years, as old fuel contracts expire, it is also expected to become severalfold costlier to run. As we’ll see, its total cost now markedly exceeds that of other common power plants (coal, gas, big wind farms), let alone the even cheaper competitors described below—cogeneration, some further renewables, and efficient end-use of electricity. Higher fossil-fuel prices since 2001 haven’t improved nuclear power’s economic case, for two reasons: its own costs have risen even more (its actual fossil-fuel competitors don’t include oil), and its formidable new competitors use little or no fossil fuel and generally exhibit falling, not rising, prices.Nuclear plants worldwide enjoy unique legal exemption from liability for catastrophic accidents.52 The United States even offers its next half-dozen nuclear plants new federal insurance against regulatory delays,53 even though meaningful public participation in licensing has already been virtually eliminated. Yet governments cannot so easily quash uncertainties about what nuclear plants will cost and whether, once built, they can remain competitive for decades. These uncertainties deter equity investors and drive developers to high debt ratios that weaken credit ratings. Nuclear Engineering International54 concludes that this means “there aren’t many company boards that would give the go-ahead to a new nuclear plant.” So far, no U.S. utility’s board has done so, despite the extraordinary new subsidies described below.
Fig. 1. The representative levelized U.S. cost of saving or delivering 1 kWh of new electricity at the retail meter with comparable reliability by choosing competing technologies. The displayed values have been chosen from larger empirical ranges in ways that favor nuclear power, but for reasons explained later, don’t reflect potential future costs to capture and sequester carbon emissions. Cogeneration and efficiency are “distributed resources,” located near where energy is used; hence they don’t incur the capital costs and energy losses (red bars, deliberately understated) of the electric grid, which links large power plants and remote wind farms to customers. 65 Wind farms, like solar cells, also require “firming” to steady their variable output, and all types of generators require some backup for when they inevitably break. The graph reflects these costs (purple bars). Making electricity from fuel creates large amounts of byproduct heat that is normally wasted. Combined-cycle industrial cogeneration and building-scale cogeneration recover most of that heat and use it to displace the need for separate boilers to heat the industrial process or the building, thus creating the economic “credit” shown (dotted black lines). Cogenerating electricity and some useful heat from currently discarded industrial heat is even cheaper because no additional fuel (aqua bars) is needed. Just the operating cost (aqua plus yellow bars) of an old nuclear or coal plant can undercut the total cost of most new generators—a misleading comparison often made by nuclear advocates. Efficiency, though, beats everything, often including just running an existing thermal power station even if building it were free. The three bars on the left represent relatively mature technologies with rising costs, while the rest generally have falling costs and much room for further improvement.Full report The Nuclear Illusion |